History has many examples of when the brightest minds gave incredibly inaccurate forecasts. Most often, this was not due to personal misconceptions or mental confusion but to a simple lack of data. Solving a problem is challenging when the answer cannot be copied from anyone.
It is enough to look at futurism, which seemed genuine and inevitable. Back then, no one knew that the cult of consumption would win. Instead of colonizing other worlds, we would be offered hundreds of smartphone models, dozens of competing delivery services, and an endless stream of TV shows for every taste.
5 times when scientists were very wrong in their forecasts
1. The Age of the Earth
At the end of the 19th century, Lord Kelvin (William Thomson), a member of the Royal Society of London and one of the most influential physicists who made invaluable contributions to engineering and thermodynamics, suggested that the Earth’s age is between 20 and 40 million years.
This conclusion was based on calculations of the time required for the molten substance to cool down to the state of a solid planet. Using the thermal conductivity equation, Lord Kelvin proved how Tierra del Fuego gradually released heat into space and cooled down. Even then, many geologists expressed disagreement.
However, William Thomson’s authority in the scientific community made his theory dominant. As usual, the problem was a lack of tools and data. Just a few years later, radioactive decay was discovered. It became clear that the deep underground elements generate heat, dramatically slowing the cooling process. The Kelvin formula has been revised. In 1907, geophysicists applied radiometric dating and found that the planet’s age is approximately 4.5 billion years.
2. The world only needs five computers
Work began in 1943 on creating the world’s first ENIAC computer. At that time, Thomas Watson, the chairman of IBM, made one of the most incredible predictions. In his opinion, only five computers would be enough for the world. The entrepreneur probably made this forecast with an eye on the number of continents. On the other hand, the first computer was massive, costly, and required an entire staff of highly qualified specialists to maintain.
The very idea that individual companies, and even more so individuals, would be able to own computers seemed absurd. Watson could not have foreseen the trend towards minimizing all elements and explosive productivity growth simultaneously. The invention of the transistor in 1947 was a turning point.
Then, it became clear that computers could be smaller and more accessible. By the early 80s, IBM, Atari, Apple, Commodore, Sinclair, and dozens of other companies produced home computers in various price ranges. Today, more than two billion PCs worldwide and even more smartphones work on the same principles.
3. Restoring the ozone layer
In the early 1980s, scientists discovered a shocking hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica. The reason was called artificial chemicals containing chlorofluorocarbons. Without the ozone layer, the Earth would be vulnerable to ultraviolet radiation. Visit. A F R I N I K. C O M .For the full article. If the planet is deeply purple, then people are in danger. An outbreak of cancer and accelerated melting of the ice sheets were predicted.
Most importantly, scientists believe restoring the ozone layer will take centuries, if not millennia. At some point, the hysteria reached such proportions that people began to call on television to abandon deodorants and homemade fragrances. In 1987, the Montreal Protocol on Phasing out Chlorofluorocarbon was signed.
As usual, the matter did not go beyond loud statements and extreme concern. Nevertheless, repeated measurements in the early 2000s showed that the ozone hole over Antarctica had significantly decreased. It is expected that by the middle of the century, it may completely “tighten,” several times ahead of pessimistic forecasts. However, this should not be a reason for a frivolous attitude towards the environment. We were fortunate this time, and the subsequent threat will be much more serious.
4. The Internet is overrated
Clifford Stoll, a good astronomer but a bad forecaster, expressed this idea in a 1995 interview with Newsweek. The scientist confidently stated that the Internet was overrated and would remain a niche tool. In his opinion, online shopping is nonsense because a person needs to see a live product. E-books will never replace traditional libraries; no news sites can compete with conventional newspapers.
The popularity of chat rooms is a temporary phenomenon that everyone will soon get tired of. The age of chat rooms turned out to be short-lived. However, their decline was due to the development of messengers and social networks, which expanded the functionality of outdated chats. Surprisingly, many technology experts agreed with Clifford. Everyone had strong arguments. In the mid-90s, the Internet remained expensive, slow, and unstable.
It looked questionable to potential investors, almost entirely devoid of a commercial component. Without a lot of money, such a structure could not develop. Soon, money poured into the Internet in an inexhaustible stream. Today, it has almost completely switched to a commercial basis. Every website and every page exists because someone earns money from it. As of 2024, more than 5 billion people used the Internet at least once a week.
5. The Hardness of the Moon
While preparing for the moon landing, scientists faced a problem that no one in the world had an exact answer to. How hard is the lunar soil? The moon’s age resembles Earth’s, but no atmosphere or life exists. A considerable amount of microparticles — dust – could accumulate on the surface for over four billion years.
Many astronomers believe that the layer of this powdery dust reaches several meters, so any object that lands on the moon will fall through. Naturally, this would mean the mission’s failure and the crew’s death. Early observations through telescopes also added to concerns.
Astronomers have noticed unexplained rock movement in the craters.
They were filled with soft, drifting material. For these reasons, the Apollo 11 descent module was equipped with a platform with steps, and the astronauts were instructed accordingly.
The first shots show Neil Armstrong very carefully testing the surface with his foot. After a few seconds, he realizes the ground is solid and covered with only a small layer of dust. After that, a small step is taken for a person, but a massive leap for humanity.
