An American professor who has been able to correctly predict the outcome of the US presidential election since 1984, has a forecast ready for the battle between Donald Trump and his Democratic challenger Joe Biden. According to Allan Lichtman of the American University in Washington DC, Biden will make it under the current circumstances. But it gets tight.
Lichtman uses his own system with thirteen ‘keys to the White House’ to determine who will win the presidency. This was introduced by the historian in 1980 based on 120 years of election results, and it proved correct every time since 1984 when Ronald Reagan was re-elected for a second term of office.
In 2016, he was one of the few who predicted that Donald Trump would make it, even though the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton was the top favorite at the time.
“The thirteen keys (which take into account the economy, social unrest, and charisma, ed.) Predict that Trump will lose the White House,” he told the New York Times this week. He does emphasize that it will be narrow – seven would currently speak in favor of Biden and six in Trump’s – and that a lot could still happen that could influence the outcome.
What’s in Trump’s favor? He is currently president and going for a second term in office, he has no serious challenger within his own party, there is also no major candidate in a third party, he has made some major policy changes through his executive orders, he has not suffered military defeats abroad, and his challenger Joe Biden is “not charismatic”.
Biden, on the other hand, can profit from the corona pandemic and the protest movement against police violence and racism that is currently underway. The social unrest, the economic crisis, and the fact that the coronavirus has wiped out all of President Trump’s economic achievements are in favor of the Democrat. Just like the wave of scandals during Trump’s presidency, including his impeachment trial.
In addition, the Democrats were the winners of the 2018 midterm elections and reentered the House of Representatives. Trump also failed to achieve military success abroad. And according to the historian, Trump also has a narrow fan base, which works in Biden’s favor.
Whether Biden’s victory is already set in stone? Not true, according to Lichtman. Much can still change, and there are other factors at play, such as possible Russian interference. But the closer to election day, the more accurate his prediction would become.